(Part 1)

Updated June 5, 2020, 2:57 PM



Dr. Bernardo M. Villegas

Without doubt, the buyer-oriented industries will lead within the V-form restoration that I count on the Philippine economic system to expertise after we lick COVID-19. Once there may be extra freedom of motion of individuals, items, and providers (after all, with a brand new regular of widespread security measures and safeguards just like the carrying of masks and social distancing), consumption expenditures will lead the restoration since they signify greater than 70 p.c of all the GDP. There are a minimum of seven main sectors to which the so-referred to as Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) belong. In my vocabulary they’re represented by the seven Fs — Food, Fashion, Furnishings, Fun (leisure and tourism), Fitness (well being and wellness-associated merchandise and providers), “Facebook” (all digital items and providers); and Formation (all types of human useful resource improvement akin to formal, nonformal and casual schooling). Let us begin with “Food.” Even within the darkest moments of the lockdown, the meals business was already the rising star or dawn business. This is to be anticipated since meals can signify wherever from 20 to 50 p.c of the household budgets relying on the revenue ranges of the consuming households. The meals business will develop on the quickest fee as soon as the Philippine economic system begins to recuperate from the slowdown brought on by the lockdown.

The whole agribusiness sector will lead within the financial restoration. This sector will embrace farming, put up-harvest, logistics, manufacturing, retailing (supermarkets, moist markets, sari-sari shops) and eating places (as soon as they’re allowed to just accept dine-ins and not solely take-outs). In reality, so long as we won’t be hit by the El Nino or La Nina climate phenomenon, I count on the agricultural sector to put up a traditionally above-common development fee of three to four per cent for 2020. Food manufacturing may develop at 7 % whereas meals retailing in the course of the second semester can rise at 6% or extra. As a latest examine of Nielsen concluded, the Philippines might be an exception to the attainable put up-pandemic pattern of households in Asia selecting to buy items to eat at residence relatively than to dine out. In the Philippines, figures confirmed that customers are among the many least prone to change their consuming habits when the COVID-19 disaster is over. Eating outdoors for many Filipino households is not only a dietary train. It is a part of the tradition of bonding with household and buddies, celebrations, fiestas, leisure, and aid from the drudgery of each day work. As lengthy as restaurateurs are decided to reconfigure their bodily designs and operations to include security measures, I’m assured that eating out will bounce again shortly, if not within the second semester of 2020, originally of 2021.

We ought to neither underestimate what can occur to the drive for city gardening when variety of those that might be laid off from the troubled sectors like tourism and journey may very well resolve to develop excessive-worth crops on comparatively small plots proper in the course of the National Capital Region or a minimum of within the close by Calabarzon or Central Luzon areas. There are even actual property builders who’re suggesting that top-worth greens needs to be grown on high of condominium towers in enterprise districts like Fort Bonifacio, Makati, or Ortigas Centre. A high agriculturist from UP Los Baños, Pablito Malabanan Villegas, has already arrange a coaching middle in Malvar, Batangas, to supply agribusiness technicians who might be employed by those that will take city gardening severely as a worthwhile enterprise. These city gardens of excessive-worth crops may match very properly into the agri-tourism marketing campaign being promoted by Secretary of Tourism Bernadette Romulo Puyat. Another distinctive benefit of the agricultural sector is that it’s now being led by a really competent and professional-lively Secretary of Agriculture within the individual of Dr. William Dar. Secretary Dar can also be giving his robust help to city gardening.

What in regards to the different six Fs among the many FMCGs? Let us begin with Fashion. Will there be a powerful demand for trend items after the financial shock of the 2 or three-month lockdown? My intestine really feel tells me that besides on the highest revenue degree, which constitutes 1 p.c of Philippine households, there might be a muted demand for costly trend manufacturers. The trend sector would be the first among the many “submerging industries” within the put up-COVID economic system. Most center-revenue or low-revenue households will make do with their current wardrobe and focus their expenditures on primary non-meals items or providers akin to schooling, well being, housing (particularly amortization for home and lot or a condominium unit), transport providers, and insurance coverage. A attainable exception could be the demand from center-revenue customers, particularly amongst ladies, for extra aesthetic types of face masks. As talked about above, some clothes producers are already shifting to the fabrication of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE).

An casual analysis completed by the Global Executives Solutions Group (an government search agency) got here out with the next high ten shopper gadgets that might be priorities amongst Philippine households of their spending conduct after the ECQ: Basic grocery meals; medication; private care; contemporary/frozen meals; payments cost; family care; protecting gadgets (alcohol, gloves, masks); meals/drinks from eat out institutions; non-primary grocery meals (snacks, liquor); and medical service (checkup, session ). The similar analysis got here out with what would be the emerging and submerging industries put up-COVID-19. The emerging ones are medical gadgets and provides; hygiene merchandise and cleansing supplies; hospitals, healthcare and insurance coverage; prescription drugs and over-the-counter (OTC) retail; E-commerce/IT digital providers; well being and wellness; logistics and supply; on-line gaming/leisure; telecommunications/web supplier; social media/digital media; grocery store retail; utilities and energy; on-line banking and remittance; residence and home equipment; and cell gadgets. Among the submerging industries are luxurious gadgets; airline/cruise; tourism and hospitality; mall retail/clothes retail; condominium actual property; car; sports activities amenities; and transport.

The third F, Furnishing, stands for the overall demand for the buyer sturdy items that go right into a residential residence, i.e., furnishings, residence home equipment, air con models, and many others. Because of a major drop in financial savings among the many center-class households in the course of the lockdown, there may be an anticipated short-term decline within the demand for social and financial housing which comprise condominium models or indifferent housing models starting from P1 to P6 million per unit. Thus, there’ll no important improve within the demand for furnishings for newly accomplished residences. Neither will there be buying energy for extra furnishings in current houses in the identical approach that there might be little efficient demand for brand new cars. The solely exception might be a brand new demand for distinctive types of residence furnishings that may be made crucial by the growing follow of labor being completed at residence. Most of us who’re working at residence with laptops and different digital gadgets have to make use of furnishings which might be in poor health-suited to working comfortably at residence. Some enterprising furnishings makers might precise design items of furnishings and equipment that may render extra comfy the conduct of frequent on-line programs, webinars, and different web-associated actions which might be being transferred from the office to the houses of staff. Otherwise, residence furnishings won’t be a precedence expenditure in a put up-pandemic surroundings. (To be continued)

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